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Horseracing Handicapping With Speed and Class As Factors

April 09, 2012 | Comments: 0 | Views: 228

Picking the contenders in a horse race is all about rating each horse by evaluating recent performance to assess ability. A simple factor like a speed figure can tell you a lot about the runner as long as you take the time to read the race notes and understand what happened during the race. A bad trip due to traffic or stumbling at the gate can result in a low speed figure that doesn't accurately represent the horse's ability.

That means that before you use a speed figure you should understand the track bias, post position bias, pace of the race, and finally the actual trip, whether good or bad, that the horse was subject to in earning that figure. Once you've got an accurate read on the speed figure the next factor to be considered is class.

Class is a very difficult attribute to get a good read on because it means something different to different people. Some handicappers think that it is simply the caliber of horses that a horse faced and can be measured by looking at the purses of the recent races that the horse competed in. To other people it means the level at which the runner was competitive. It isn't enough that the horse in question raced in Grade I company, for instance, but it must have also showed some competitiveness.

That means it had to run close to the front in the early stages, or have finished well in the latter part of the race, closing in the stretch run or finishing within several lengths of the eventual leader. Whatever method you use to determine class, the important thing is to be consistent from on horse to the next. In my opinion, just because a horse raced against a certain class of horse, it doesn't mean it was competitive so I like to see a good finish or some good early run.

While those facts alone don't mean that the runner could actually win at that level, it does show that a reasonable drop in class might result in a win or at least an "in the money," finish.

The next step is to use these two horseracing factors to find the real competitors in the race who will be around at the finish. It becomes a trade off between class and speed. A high speed figure at a lower class may not be as important as a lower speed figure at a much higher class. Assuming that the horse ran hard early, was close to the leader or actually led at the half mile call and then faded and posted a poor speed figure, may mean that the most important factor was the class and early speed, not the actual final time.

Learning to balance those figures and to spot the real class and speed of the race will lead to many good priced winners that are dismissed by the general public.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

Source: EzineArticles
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