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Handicapping the Kentucky Derby and Finding a Good Bet

April 21, 2012 | Comments: 0 | Views: 160

As yet another Kentucky Derby looms on the horse racing horizon the media hype and frenzy is at an all time high. You can buy a lot of data and information about the horses and their connections. You can read countless articles that dissect the Derby as it has never been dissected and examined before. While at a local OTB lately they had one of the televisions tuned to a horse racing channel and a commentator there talked for hours discussing the big race and all his angles and thoughts.

After a while his words were nothing more than babble. One word kept popping out of his mouth above all others, "value." He seemed to think that his listeners wanted value from the race and that he knew how to get it for them. He picked the race apart so cleanly a vulture would have passed the carcass by and yet, he never seemed to come to a final conclusion that was simple and realistic enough for the casual horse player to grasp and play.

There's an old saying, "Over analysis leads to paralysis." Nothing sums up the media overload surrounding the Derby any better than that saying. Enough is enough and then some.

It's a horse race and it will run and play out like a horse race. At the beginning, no mortal knows who will win or what will happen. We handicap the race and make our best guess and then some of us brave souls plunk down some cash and try to come out ahead on the deal. Some will and some won't, that's how it works. You can talk things to death and when the dust settles what is going to happen won't be affected at all by what you've said. When the gate opens the race begins, not two weeks before the actual event.

Here's my advice for picking a winner in the Derby. First of all, it's a classic race. Handicap it like a classic, meaning look at the breeding of each horse and determine which ones are bred to go the distance. The ones who really are capable of easily going the distance will be your first picks. Let's keep it simple and limit that list to 5 horses.

Next, let's talk about form. Horses often peak before the Derby and put up a good race in one of the races leading up to the big event but then come up short or empty when the first Saturday in May rolls around. Look for a horse that closed well on a dirt track and finished in the money. Obviously, if the horse earned enough money to be in the Derby then it will have some experience and class or it wouldn't be able to enter the race. If it can go the distance and may be rounding into form, then it has a chance and you'll probably get some good value because these types of horses are often overlooked in favor of the horses who ran a big race in one of the prep races.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

Source: EzineArticles
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